A trend is the distillation of a novelty---a novelty plus time. You can predict a trend by anticipating what will remain of a novelty in a year. In short, a novelty is the tidal wave and a trend is what’s left on the beach after the tidal wave recedes. Anyone can recognize a trend once the tidal wave has receded; the trick is to predict what will be left on the beach while the tidal wave is still on the horizon. Those who can do this have a significant business advantage. Bu