Determining what is a real opportunity versus a speculative risk is a challenge. Over time, this becomes intuitive. In the meantime, following are a few questions to mull over: 1. What aren’t my competitors (especially my bigger competitors) doing this already? 2. Am I justifiably ahead of the curve or is there a flaw in the idea? 3. Am I evaluating the right numbers? 4. Am I in love with the opportunity so much that I am overly optimistic about the viability?